Toronto Real Estate Market Watch February 2018 | Sandy & Rayissa

Toronto Market Watch

What's been happening with Toronto real estate prices in February 2018? 

The Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) recently released the February 2018 Market Watch real housing numbers.... 5,175 residential transactions were done in the TREB system in February 2018 versus 7,955 residential transactions in February 2017.  Year-over-year this is down by 34.9%. Startling? Yes, but is it really?  Remember, February of 2017 was already in the thick of the crazy Spring 2017 Toronto real estate market, where the number of houses sold and prices were increasing rapidly by late January.  This has impacted February's year-over-year summary numbers so it looks like a big drop, but 2017 was not a normal year.

In reality, Toronto's real estate market in February 2018 was 12% higher than the average reported for February of 2016, which is well above the annualized rate of inflation for the past two years.

February of 2017 and the spring real estate market of 2017 was a fast-moving, upwardly increasing market that outpaced almost all past records and trends.  We see that, as the average TREB MLS price was down 12.4%, year-over-year, in comparison to February 2018.  But since the numbers were off the charts in early 2017, this would explain what looked like a huge drop, year-over-year.  Add in the new mortgage stress test, and you have a constipated February 2018 market.

When TREB released its Outlook for 2018, the forecast anticipated a slow start to the year compared to the historically high sales count reported in the winter and early spring of 2017. Prospective home buyers are still coming to terms with the psychological impact of the Fair Housing Plan, and some have had to reevaluate their plans due to the new OFSI-mandated mortgage stress test guidelines and generally higher borrowing costs.
— Tim Syrianos, TREB President
retired couple buying house

Has the Spring 2018 Market Started Yet in Toronto?

Mmm, yes.  And no.

In comparison to Spring 2017, the answer would be a resounding NO.  In comparison to a more normal year like 2016, the answer would be, just a little bit.  January 2018 was definitely slower than the year before.  Early February 2018 has been better, but still slow. By the end of the second week of of February 2018, we started to see more activity, with more listings and sales coming up in Toronto.  We also personally observed a significant jump in listings the last week in February. 

What will happen to housing sales and prices in Toronto in March 2018?

Jason Mercer, TREB's Director of Market Analysis predicts that while Toronto can expect stronger price growth, listings will continue to be in demand, which will contribute to prices being driven up.  This week is March break in the GTA and some of our clients are getting their houses ready to go on the market next week or for just after Easter.  We expect this spring break week to be slower and to experience a spike in the number of houses for sale beginning after March break and after Easter.   Don't forget, though, some neighbourhoods are still selling in competition, especially in high-demand areas.

What do you think?  Or what do you see happening in your neighbourhood? 

Would you like to discuss how your house would be received in this market if you put it up for sale?  Or do you want a price for your house?  Contact Rayissa directly at 416-400-0805 or at rayissa@homes4toronto.com